The Fan Hub

There is one constant for the New York Yankees from year to year. No, it's not the overpaid free agents, the $6 hot dogs, or the long wait for the 4 train (because who doesn't like paying $35 for parking?). It's the satisfaction of knowing that no matter how short the team fell the year before, the new season always seems to bring a better chance of winning the World Series than last year.

For those other teams, "next year" is the Promised Land. For Cubs fans, "next year" is all they ever really have. For the New York Yankees, "next year" is a quietly smug reminder to everyone else that their team didn't have to sell out in an all-or-nothing sprint to the season's finish line. They will continue to roll out juggernaut lineup after juggernaut lineup, wreaking havoc on the AL East and sitting atop the weekly power rankings like a pigeon, inconsiderately pooping on the rest of the league like a freshly washed Chevy.

But don't put the car in the garage just yet. For the 2012 season, that same familiar comfort is not nearly as encouraging for the Yankees as it has been over the last fifteen years. There is no prized free agent mega signing waiting in the wings. There is no superstar returning from injury. There are few options for a mutually beneficial trade. The Yankees have to sleep in the bed they've made, and have few opportunities to improve it.

"Get real," you say. "The Yankees had the best record in the American League last year," you say. "They won their division by six games!" "TWO HUNDRED MILLION DOLLAR PAYROLL!"

Alright, we hear you. Most baseball prognosticators do as well. But let's not forget how quickly the experts were last year to give the division to the Red Sox given all of their vaunted offseason acquisitions, even though the Yankees were the more recent of the two teams to win the World Series. Let's also remember how the Yankees didn't do much to bolster their starting rotation, despite it being the most glaring weakness on the team.

There is no prized free agent mega signing waiting in the wings. There is no superstar returning from injury. There are few options for a mutually beneficial trade.

And it's with regard to pitching that the 2012 Yankees need to be scrutinized the most. Yes, Joba Chamberlain will be returning to the team after Tommy John surgery (you know, where they literally cut a tendon out from another part of your body and surgically reattach it to your elbow). Chamberlain should not be expected to be 100% healthy by the start of the season. Nor should we expect him to be a starter in 2012 for two reasons: first, to limit his innings and keep his arm healthy, and second, to keep him in a role where he has been most successful — the bullpen.

Ivan Nova, who had a great 16-4 record, returns after an impressive rookie campaign. But however strong that record is, it cannot mask the fact that Nova pitches to contact. Nova had a .287 BABIP (batting average for balls hit in play) against, which is slightly lower than the league average, but disconcerting when he's trying to get the other team to hit ground balls. He had 16 double plays turned behind him, but if some of those balls find the holes, they are hits and not outs. Nova gave up about a hit per inning, which isn't great, and only struck out 98 batters. Setup man David Robertson struck out 100.

If it's unfair to pick on the rookie after a fairly impressive first campaign, then consider Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. When the stem cells or platelets or plasma or steroids left his elbow, Colon was ineffective, falling victim to the long ball. He was never quite the same after a DL stint for a strained calf. Even so, he got the Yankees through a moderate stretch at the beginning of the season, piling up wins and strikeouts. Don't expect to see him back in 2012 regardless. Freddy Garcia was one of the first Yankees Brian Cashman contacted after he was re-signed as GM. His control was good, but he's hardly overpowering. Garcia essentially used smoke and mirrors to compile a 12-8 record. A 3.62 ERA is attractive for a number 4 or 5 starter, but the Yankees need a #2 or #3 in 2012.

At 36 years old and pulling in a huge salary, A-Rod is emblematic of the Yankees’ problems.

And what about A.J. Burnett, who was considered to be the #2 starter behind CC Sabathia (the only Yankee starter worth writing home about)? He only put in the worst full season for a starter in Yankees history with an 11-11 record, and ERA north of 5, and 31 home runs given up — the most in his career. He also led the league with 25 wild pitches, and his 83 walks was a regression from last year's 10-15 effort. Hardly reliable, Burnett has more meltdowns than a Soviet nuclear power plant. Rumors swirled that it was similar issues in 2010 that led to then-pitching coach Dave Eiland being dismissed, but it doesn't seem that Larry Rothschild has turned AJ around at this point.

Sadly, AJ might have been the most clutch performer for the Yankees down the stretch and in the playoffs last season. The bats? About as un-clutch as you can get. Swisher continued his postseason disappearing act last season. Derek Jeter was able to resurrect an awful start to bat almost .300, and Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano turned in MVP-caliber seasons. However, A-Rod looked downright broken down, and MarkTeixeira's loopy swing saw him hit .248, the lowest of his career. Brett Gardner also ruined a strong start with a late season mega-slump to hit .259. Russell Martin was solid defensively but dreadful at the plate. Everyone is also a year older in 2012.

All of these players are coming back next season and are starting. At this stage of their careers, none of these players are going to break their mold or expectations. A core offense of Jeter, Cano, Granderson, and Texieira's power is strong. However, has Swisher demonstrated 2010 to be the fluke and 2011 back towards the norm? Will A-Rod ever be A-Rod again? Can Gardner do more than awkwardly slap at the ball? Have Martin's injuries sapped him of his offensive prowess?

The team needs consistency and execution to get over the hump in 2012. Right now, there's only one starter and two hitters on the Yankees that I would fear if I was an opponent. To win when it counts — for the Yankees and the rest of the league that means the postseason — the Yankees are going to need more weapons than that.