Josh McDaniels And The Myth Of Nexts

With the firing of Josh McDaniels by Pat Bowlen and the Denver Broncos brain trust, an important question is called into play: is there such a thing as "the next” of anything? I know it seems like a somewhat rhetorical question, yet every NFL, MLB, NBA, Owner and GM along with almost every CEO across the county try to defy the common logic and recapture or recreate greatness of something or someone that once delivered unexpected excellence. Josh McDaniels is just another example of this dilemma.

Let's travel back-back to early January of 2009. Denver Broncos owner Pat Bowlen introduced a thirty-three-year-old named Josh McDaniels as the new head coach of his team, The Denver Broncos. McDaniels' resume was not really all that impressive. He had only eight years of experience as an NFL Assistant coach, first in 2001 as a personal assistant, and then in 2002-2003 he became a defensive assistant working with the defensive backs. (This is important, but we'll get to it later.) In 2005, McDaniels received a big promotion from his guru/boss Bill Belichick. McDaniels became the Quarterbacks Coach of at the time the best Quarterback in the NFL: Tom Brady. Then, from 2005-2006 he worked as the offensive coordinator and coached the Patriots Offence without their best receiver (Deion Branch) to third a six conversion away against the Indianapolis Colts from going back to yet another Super bowl. That year, the Pats had limited offensive weapons, yet Brady still managed to put close to MVP type numbers. Then, welcome in 2007, and the Patriots revamped and supercharged offence. Clearly after being scorned by the previous year's failure to reach the Super Bowl in Miami, the Pats proceeded to rip through the league with an attitude that can only be described as similar to Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction on crystal meth: jealous, enraged and out to get what was hers at any cost. In 2007, it really seemed like the Patriots contemplated showing up to games without a punter; they were vexed and out to prove a point. Behind Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, a tremendous offensive-line, and Dante Stallworth, the Pats set every possible offensive record in the league that year. They stormed through the regular season undefeated and were one play away from winning the Super Bowl. At the end of the year McDaniels was labeled the next great disciple of Bill Belichick.

The following year, though, Josh really earned his reputation as a child "prodigy". Week one of the 2008-2009 season, Brady and his bunch have the same weapons to make another undefeated run back to the Super Bowl, only this time, Kevin Faulk went out dancing late one night and was tardy to a team meeting, so he was punished by sitting for the first quarter of the game. On third down in the first quarter, Sammy Morris was substituted in for the spot usually occupied by Faulk, Matt Light missed Marcus Pollard coming of the edge on safety blitz, Morris was a second too late picking up the block and Pollard came crashing into Tom's knee, ending his season. Up until that point Tom Brady had played in 112 straight regular season games, and I would argue that most Patriots fans didn't even know who Brady's backup was. Enter Matt Cassel, a seventh round pick from USC, who backed up Carson Palmer and then Matt Leinart, both Heisman winners.

Cassel threw maybe ten passes in four years at USC, yet here he was, about to be given they keys to the Patriots high powered offense while at the same time, trying to replace a legend in Tom Brady. Matt Cassel threw for 3,693 Yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 Ints, a completion percentage of just over 63%, and led the Pats to record of 11-5-just missing the playoffs. The word got out and Josh McDaniels was in the same boat the FED was in the summer of 2008 when they had a license to print money to open up the markets. I mean Josh made Matt Cassell look like-well Tom Brady. He took a offence less arguable the greatest Quarterback in the game and had them offensively ranked atop the league, while also tutoring a 7th round never-was and turned him into a legit NFL signal caller. If that didn't push his stock high enough, he also coached defensive backs early in his career under a great defensive minded coach, just like his mentor Bill Belichick. Josh was intelligent, witty, could think outside the box, come from football coaching family, and reminded everyone of a current NFL coach with a set of similar characteristics. He is, the league thought, the NEXT Bill Belichick. And what NFL owner wouldn't to want find an undervalued commodity to turn his franchise around like Bill did with the Patriots? One problem: similar does not mean next.

Remember the same argument was made two years before, with the little penguin-looking fellow who jet-set his way out of New England for New York. Eric Mangini; or " The Manginius" as Jets fans referred to him in his first year. Eric took a team built by someone else to the playoffs, only to see the team go in the complete opposite direction his next year. Oh and just for the record? Mangini coached the Defensive backs in 2000 for New England and was labeled "Baby Bill" by other coaches. Mangini lasted just two full years in New York before he was shown the door only to pop up again in Cleveland to replace another one of Belichick " masterminds" in Romeo Crennell. But maybe Josh McDaniels was different. I mean, when Mangini, Charlie Weiss and Romo Crennell left New England for greener pastures Bill turned into an Ice Queen, when Josh's name was floated in job openings Bill endorsed the move whole-heartedly. Now here's the problem that Woody Johnson learned the hard way and now Pat Bowlen just learned as well: Bill Belichick wasn't Bill Belichick until he became Bill Belichick. I know it's a little "Nichian" but let me explain.

Before coming to New England, Bill Belichick was known as great defensive coordinator under perhaps one of the greatest personal men in all of football: Bill Parcells. BB [Bill Belichick} devised schemes that turned Bill Walsh brain into rate running maze. His game planning in 1991 helped the Giants win a Super Bowl against an offensive juggernaut, the '91 Buffalo Bills. BB was widely viewed by many football insiders as one of the best defensive minds in the game, and a can't miss talent due to the fact that he was tutored by the great Bill Parcells. BB earned his first head coaching job with the Cleveland Browns that winter after the Super Bowl XXV victory. Without getting into all the details, BB didn't quite live up to the hype that was expected. Cleveland thought the same thing that Woody Johnson and Pat Bowlen thought when they hired BB: they thought they were getting the next Bill Parcells. What the Browns ownership got was a prickly, stubborn coach who fought with media, wouldn't bend to current NFL trends and always knew what was best, because he was the next Bill Parcells after all.

If NFL owners and GM's alike are trying to find the next Bill Belichick it isn't going to happen, because there is no such thing. Plainly speaking there are no such things as “nexts".

Belichick lasted just four seasons in Cleveland and never quite managed to return the Browns to their previous glory and didn't even come close to filing the mammoth Parcells shoes he was expected to fill. He made a very controversial move in cutting a fan favorite in Bernie Kosar, replacing him with Mike Tomzack. The Browns only reached the post-season once during Bill's tenure and BB only won 36 games in four years in Cleveland. BB was fired, the Browns moved to Baltimore, ended up winning a Super Bowl and the Browns today are trying like hell to get out of NFL purgatory.
(On a side note: People from Cleveland are still royally miffed at Bill and think if they didn't go 5-11 his last year Art would never have moved the team; trust me when I tell there isn't going to be a Bill Belichick day in Cleveland anytime soon.)

Bill then made his way to the Patriots and returned to his mentor's side, helping to take an overachieving Patriots team to the Super Bowl in 1996. Then came the Parcells-Craft break up and Parcells left to take his talents to New York, bringing his entire coaching staff from New England with him. Ultimately BB found his way back to Foxboro and has led the Patriots to three Super Bowl titles, and is on the verge of becoming one of the all-time most winning coaches in the history of the NFL. Against the Jets on Monday night during the 45-3 shellacking, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady became the third most winning Coach/Quarterback combination ever, about to surpass Chuck Knoll and Terry Bradshaw and has well eclipsed the Parcells Simms combo.

If NFL owners and GM's alike are trying to find the next Bill Belichick it isn't going to happen, because there is no such thing. Plainly speaking there are no such things as “nexts". None, Nada, Ni. In Tampa Bay Raheem Morris isn't the next Mike Tomlin, just like Justin Bierber isn't the next Justin Timberlake, Britney wasn't the next Madonna, and Cold Play isn't the next U2, and there will never be another Sharon Stone because Basic Instinct was culture changer. For some reason in culture, particularly in sports, we want to benchmark a great (or Bieber's case a lucky) talent against someone who he or she looks like, sounds like, acts like or plays like. We hear this nonsense every year in the NFL and NBA drafts incessantly. "He has the potential to be the next…" Guess what? It never happens, and it never will. Here is another memo to league GM's, no matter what coach you try and pluck off the Patriots staff this year, they will be met with the same fate as Eric Mangini, Charlie Weiss, Romeo Crennell, and now Josh McDaniels have, because they are all sired from a greater horse. Why have all of these coaches failed to live up to their expected hype? It's simple: because you cannot recreate DNA, hard work, and the ability to understand and manage people. "Greatness is only achieved from great loss" a poet once wrote, and it took Bill being fired to realize that he was Bill Belichick and not the next Bill Parcells. Where Josh McDaniels failed had nothing to do with X's and O's. He didn't understand how to manage the locker-room, a draft room, or a front office. When Josh McDaniels took over as the Broncos head coach in 2009, he was left with a very talented roster and a top-notch defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan, and with those pieces around him he had a chance at what gamblers call "beginners luck". He hadn't realized yet that he was like a freshman girl attending her first frat party-well over his head. After the season he let great players and coaches leave town because he in essence "drank the cool-aide" that he himself was serving.

Still not convinced that Josh McDaniels was never going to be the "next Bill Belichick"? Think about this. When the Broncos got caught illegally taping the 49ers practice in London what did Josh say? He claimed that he "had no idea that it was going on." Something like that is pretty hard to play ignorant to, so either Josh is either lying or he was just over his head. Great leaders, be it coaches, CEOs, owners, whatever, know every possible situation that is going on with every employee in their organization. Do you think for one second that Belichick doesn't know who is taking a leak in the building, how long they were there, when they flushed, and if they washed their hands afterward? He does, and admitted as much on 60 Minutes when he was caught in his own taping scandal. Bill never claimed ignorance because he is Bill Belichick, a paranoid control freak, which doesn't make him perfect or beyond reproach. But because he has failed he is able to realize his flaws and limitations. Is Josh McDaniels done as head coach? No way, he is far too talented. But people have to look at Josh for who he is, rather than what year he graduated Belichick U. S the next time you here someone say " oh he/she is the next______" that is someone trying to convince you and themselves of something that can never be.

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