The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly on the Celtics

The Celtics are about one-fifth of the way through their season, and over the course of their first 12 games there has been a lot to be concerned about and very little to make fans feel like this team will make a meaningful push through the playoffs. At this point even making the playoffs seems like a bit of a stretch.

Let's take a look at some things they can possibly build on and then take a look at the main reason why they are 4-8.

THE GOOD

Rajon Rondo:


Credit: Mark L. Baer-US PRESSWIRE

Rondo has developed into a different type of player this year. I went to the Mavericks and Thunder games this past week, and seeing him play in person made an observation by my friend Tung seem spot on. He noticed Rondo is more aggressive and savvy going to the hoop; he is finishing more consistently at the basket. His body-control is outstanding, and I think that has also translated to his jump shot, which many thought would never come.

If you look at Rondo's shooting numbers, every stat has gone up. His field goal percentage has gone up 2%, along with his free throw percentage, his true shooting percentage, and his effective field goal percentage. This translates to him scoring 4 more points a game, while still keeping his assists per game above 10.

Some may argue that 2% is not that big of a jump. However, when you consider that Rondo (in a small sample size) is also shooting the ball nearly twice more per game, it becomes very significant. And he is taking more shots from the outside, meaning his percentage is going up even while taking more difficult shots.

Rondo is making himself extremely valuable to the Celtics, especially as Garnett, Allen, and Pierce all look a little bit older.

The Bench:
Kudos to Danny Ainge for acquiring Brandon Bass, Keyon Dooling, and Mickael Pietrus. When you also include Greg Steimsma's his early contributions, the bench has some positives.

The second unit has been put under a lot of pressure, as the starters have started games extremely slowly.

Brandon Bass, while he seems like he might be allergic to passing, has been a good offensive addition. He is shooting nearly 50% from the floor, a major upgrade over Glen Davis who is shooting 39% this year in Orlando. However, Davis' past performance in Boston is nearly identical to Bass' stats this year.

The other downside to not having Davis anymore is his ridiculous 4th quarter video where he would tell everyone in the Garden to stand up, except he would deliver the line, "It's the fourth quarter, you gotta stand up," like he was a Louisiana Bayou boy out hunting for crocodiles. I really wish there was a video of it somewhere.

Mickael Pietrus has only played a few games so far, but he has added a sense of energy and excitement as he seems legitimately pumped to be a Celtic. He hit a few big shots down the stretch against the Thunder, and hopefully he will continue to earn more minutes off the bench.

The second unit has also been put under a lot of pressure, as the starters have started games extremely slowly (more on that later).

THE BAD

The Big Three:
Let's start with an ice cold Ray Allen. I know, I know, shooters are streaky. But Allen has looked the past week or so that the offense is not running smoothly, and he is not getting a lot of looks. He was a huge reason why Celtics fans were optimistic even after starting 0-3 because he was hitting his shots and scoring at an impressive clip. During the first 7 games he averaged 20 points per game while shooting 63% from three-point range, and 46% overall from the field.

But since that torrid start Allen has cooled a lot. In the last four games since returning from a bout with the flu, he is averaging 9.5 points, and is shooting 38% from downtown, and 42% from the field overall. His scoring numbers are way down, and while most players would love to have those shooting percentages, it’s bad when you’re Ray Allen. His inaccuracy is making it hard for the Celtics to generate offense, as they need him to score 13-18 points a game to be successful as a team.

You could argue that Allen’s numbers could not continue at the rate they were going in the first seven games, and that Pierce coming back has taken away some of his shots. But has that hurt him this much in the past? I don’t think so.


credit: Michael Hickey-US PRESSWIRE

The schedule is also tough on a guy who runs miles and miles during each game. And after getting to the line 29 times in the first 7 games, in the last 4 games he has only shot 5 free throws. Getting to the line and using those legs to get by defenders will be a big part of Allen getting those extra points.

Meanwhile, it’s glaringly obvious that Kevin Garnett is not the same guy. He could not finish at the rim against Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, constantly losing the ball before getting to the basket. One play against the Thunder stood out in particular: Garnett caught the ball at the top of the key, took a few power dribbles and went to the hoop like he was going to elevate and dunk. Instead, a defender slid over and Garnet tossed the ball at the rim hoping it would go in. It didn't. My roommate Pat asked, "How many years do you have to go back in time for that to be a dunk?" We both thought and said, "five" simultaneously. He just doesn't have the same strength, although luckily his jumper is still pretty solid and he is helping on defense.

Lastly, Paul Pierce is looking like he isn't quite fully healed and that his heel injury hindered his workouts this fall. He will surely play himself into shape as the year goes on, and hopefully his health will allow him to play consistently. Still, feet issues always seem to linger, especially when you're 6'7" 235 pounds.

Scoring defense:
The Celtics are ninth in scoring defense this season, allowing 92.5 points a game. Considering the offenses they have already faced, it is a pretty good sign that they can stop teams. They have only allowed the Knicks and Heat to score 100+ points, and those were the first two games. Four other team have scored 90+ points, on the Celtics.

However, Basketball Reference rates the Celtics defense 21st in their defensive rating, which calculates how many points the team would allow in 100 possessions (104.1 point). So while the numbers look good overall, they are allowing a lot of points per possession.

THE UGLY

The offense:


Credit: Mark L. Baer-US PRESSWIRE

This offense is nearly unbearable to watch. They struggle to get into their sets and they have absolutely no inside presence. Jermaine O'Neal is making a living getting the ball on the block, dribbling the shot clock down, then turning and either front rimming or airballing a turn-around jump shot.

Overall, it is very stagnant and it seems like a lot of guys are standing around waiting for someone else to make a shot. The team is averaging 89.75 points a game, which is 26th in the league.

At the start of the season I asked the question, "Where will the scoring come from?" So far it has not come from any consistent source, and as the season progresses the Celtics will need to find some answers to that question.

This first quarter has put the Celtics behind the eight ball too many times this season. They are averaging 20.3 points in the first quarter, and in the past five game have scored just 13, 15, 14, 24, and 17 points, respectively, in the opening period. Let that settle in for a moment. It's awful, and it's a huge reason they have lost all those games. They don't have the horses to battle back and then sustain the high energy into the fourth quarter, they are taxing their bench, and they can't finish game strong.

The Future:
The start to this season has forced many people to question the team's future, and rumors are already circlulating that contending teams are inquiring about Paul Pierce. The core of this team is old and will soon be out the door, but who will be the next core group of guys? Rondo and Jeff Green? Rondo and Dwight Howard (2 second bananas never win championships)? Rondo and Kevin Love? Could it be guys we don't even have on the team right now?

The truth is, fans don't know the direction of the Celtics. The future, if handled correctly, could be bright; they should have the cap space to rebuild after this season. And they have a GM in Danny Ainge that is not afraid to pull the trigger on any deal he thinks will help (just ask Perkins).

The scary part is looking back and finding a top free agent signing in the history of the franchise. Boston is not a destination for many players. It's not very reassuring when Don Nelson and Travis Knight pop up as big time free agent signings (I didn't say successful signings…). Maybe Doc Rivers will lure a stud free agent; maybe this team needs to build through trades and the draft. Either way, the fate of the Celtics lies in the hands of Ainge and Rivers.

The Celtics have 54 games remaining, so they obviously have plenty of time to right their ship. Let's say that 33-33 gets you into the playoffs. So at 4-8, that means they need to finish 29-25. Here's hoping the Celtics can turn it around quickly, and take advantage of the bad teams in the Eastern Conference. Boston fans have become too accustomed to slow starts. It's become a habit, and we have learned that it is tough to make up for lost time.

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