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To follow Wisconsin and Indiana is to understand the mercurial nature of a college basketball season. Wisconsin has pushed through to AP’s Top 10 on two separate occasions before falling out of the Top 25 altogether (and bouncing back to #25 this week); Indiana started out unranked (and 10th in most preseason Big Ten polls) before working its way up to #7, and consequently falling to #16. As the Badgers battle the Hoosiers tonight, both teams find themselves at crossroads.

This is not a must-win game for Indiana; barring an epic collapse, early wins against Kentucky and Ohio State all but ensure a tournament bid for the Hoosiers. But it certainly feels like a must-win game. After a 15-1 start, Indiana has dropped three of its last four. The Hoosiers needed a win at home against Penn State and they came through with a 73-54 walloping of the Nittany Lions. A loss against Penn State would have destroyed any chance of the Hoosiers being taken seriously. I can’t help but feel the same way about Indiana’s game tonight against the Badgers. The Hoosiers need to prove they can win on the road; thus far they’re 1-3 on the road during conference, including a particular brutal loss to Nebraska. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, they will not always have the friendly confines of Assembly Hall. If they cannot win away from Bloomington, they can hardly be considered a legitimate contender.

Wisconsin Badgers center Jared Berggren (40) dunks the ball against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the first half at Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Bradley Leeb-US PRESSWIRE

Wisconsin finds itself a foil to Indiana. The Badgers have been hot of late, winning their last four conference games after an abysmal 1-3 start in conference play. The two knocks against Wisconsin: they haven’t been that great at home (3 of their 5 losses occurred in Madison), and they’ve played poorly against ranked teams (1-4 with its first win coming against #25 Illinois less than a week ago). The Badgers can set both of these doubts aside with a win against Indiana. Should Wisconsin lose, the Badgers can be discarded as contenders, and remain a team that beats up on the bad and yields to the good.

The clashing styles of the Hoosiers and the Badgers should make this game especially intriguing. Indiana is 15th in the country in points per game (79.8), 5th in field goal percentage (50.0%), and 2nd in three-point percentage (44.9%). Wisconsin leads the nation in points allowed per game (49.6), field goal percentage allowed (35.9%), and is 5th in three-point percentage (26.4%). There are radical gaps here; something has to give.

For the Hoosiers to win, they must get to the line and shoot well from outside. Indiana is outstanding from the arc and from the line (on average, the Hoosiers shoot 24.5 free throws a game). Their four losses have in common either a lack of free throws (Michigan St. (9 free throws), Ohio State (11), Nebraska (13)) or an exceptionally poor performance from the arc (Minnesota (22.2 3P%)). Thus, it follows that Wisconsin’s game plan should be to limit fouls and to contest three-pointers.

This win will catapult neither Indiana nor Wisconsin to the top of the Big Ten; in fact, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan are all playing better than either squad. But fourth place is not a bad place to be. Indiana and Wisconsin both desperately need this win to prove that they deserve consideration in the Big Ten’s top tier. This sense of urgency coupled with their clashing styles should make for compelling basketball. With the home-court and better defense against a conference opponent that struggles on the road, this feels like a game Wisconsin should win.