The Fan Hub

Throughout the first 18 games of the 2011-12 NBA season, no team has been more disappointing than the New York Knicks.  You could make an argument that the Golden State Warriors or Sacramento Kings are more suited for the title with talented rosters yet sub-par records, but neither team came into the season with more hype than New York.  The NBA, its fans, and the media all set high expectations for this team.  Yeah, it was assumed a condensed training camp and compressed preseason would cause a bumpy road to start, but not comparable to an 1850ss wagon ride on the Oregon Trail.  Faint of heart fans would have succumbed to dysentery by now.

Despite the frustrating start, I'm not quite ready to hop off the bandwagon just yet, although any Knicks fan recovering from alcoholism subsequently would have.  Despite my morbid tone, there have been a few bright moments this season providing fans with small glimpses of what this team is capable of.  

It was assumed a condensed training camp and compressed preseason would cause a bumpy road to start, but not comparable to an 1850s wagon ride on the Oregon Trail.

It seems like every fan I speak to has a different diagnosis for New York's problems.  Of course I never agree with them (not because they’re necessarily wrong, though sometimes they are) but because not one person has come close to even sniffing the surface on the issue.  Ironically enough, that is exactly where the problem lies.  Still, the list of grows longer with each passing game.  Some of the more common arguments that you may have read in a local newspaper or, in my case, conversing on a Greyhound Bus from Albany include:

• "Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire cannot play together."
• "The Knicks need a point guard."
• "No one besides A'mare and Carmelo can score."
• "Chandler clogs the lane making it impossible to drive."
• "The 2012 Knicks are the 2011 Heat."
• "Mike D'Antoni must go."

Like bodies in the Hudson River, it seems like a new argument surfaces with each Knicks loss.  I literally heard three different cases on the subway this morning.  Some of these conclusions carry more weight than others, but the problem I find with each analysis is a lack of statistical evidence.  They are all perceptions; biased opinions from fans whose own basketball strategy derives from local pick-up games at the Y.

There is a classic opening scene from Seinfeld with a bit discussing people's ability to refer their doctors to others without hesitation, usually boasted by the typical, "My doctor's the best," or "You have to try my guy."  Seinfeld argues the point that there is no possible way that every doctor is the best. Someone is graduating at the bottom of these classes? Where are these doctors?  The diagnoses you read earlier were from those doctors.  Allow me to offer another opinion.

Although I am no different from my judgmental peers, my argument comes equipped with the perfect blend of rational thought and statistical backing, and even is formulated as a Chinese proverb.

Why a Chinese proverb?  Well it just so happens that the diagnosis came to me as I was dining on some of New York's finest B-graded Chinese cuisine.  See how I didn't say it was the best?  I shot you straight, and that's a good sign for you.

The bottom line is, With time and dimes, the Knicks can shine.

I hear you saying, "What? That's it?  What the hell does that mean? If anything it sounds like Walt "Clyde" Frazier if he had gone into the fortune cookie business.” (Ed note: Are we sure he hasn’t?)

Simply put, it means that the Knicks are a better team when dishing the rock. In 18 games this year, they are 4-1 when compiling 20 or more assists in a game, and just 3-10 when failing to reach that mark.

The Knicks had been undefeated at 20+ with the one exception coming against Denver last Saturday when the team racked up 29 assists, only to lose in double overtime.  One would think that my argument is flawed due to this one game, but if you take a closer look, you would see the numbers are very deceiving.

Look at that, Melo actually passed the ball! Michael Hickey-US PRESSWIRE

New York finished the first half with an 8-point lead over Denver thanks in large part to the 15 assists they mustered up in the first half.  The Nuggets returned the favor in the second, outscoring the Knicks by 8, forcing the game into a first, then second overtime, only to outscore New York by 5 in double OT.  In that time, the team only managed to accumulate an additional nine assists — six less than the first half — despite playing 10 extra minutes of overtime.  It's no surprise that Denver outscored the team by 13 in those final 35 minutes.

On the other side of the spectrum, the few exceptions where New York managed to win without breaking the 20 assist mark came against Charlotte and Philadelphia, where the Knicks shot just .380 and .416 from the field, respectively.  Even with sound passing, you can't be credited for an assist if the ball isn't going through the hoop.

In many cases, fans often forget the power of the pass, especially in the Knicks’ case.  When New York is effectively moving the ball, they can compete with any team in this league.  It is an old saying in basketball that "the ball always moves faster than the man,” and it's true. Strong passing teams typically shoot a higher field goal percentage due to their ability to find the open shot through quick ball movement.

At times it can be quite the opposite for New York. The offense often grows stagnant when opting for one-on-one situations.  It is during these times that the offense is most vulnerable, as Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony force the action, resulting in poor shots, offensive fouls or last second bail out passes; the perfect recipe for turnovers.  This was most prominent throughout New York's six-game losing streak in mid-January.

During that stretch, the team averaged 18.6 assists per game, with Melo and 'Mare shooting a combined 70-193 from the field (.362). If either superstar would have chosen to pass instead of forcing their hand, that number would have been closer to 62-135, a respectable .459 rate, not to mention the swing in points that would have resulted from fields goals made by Knick teammates.

If you’re still not convinced, take a look at the box scores from the Knicks' last two games.  In their first game against Charlotte, New York dominated, stockpiling points until finishing the 48th minute up 33.  Scoring was balanced amongst the team, with Tyson Chandler finishing with 20 and Stoudemire and Landry Fields with 18 apiece.  The team had 26 assists.  Carmelo Anthony only scored 1 point in 30 minutes. I'll let that simmer.

In game two, the Knicks found themselves down four entering the second quarter, only to climb back and tie the game entering the half. Cleveland's team play wore down New York in the second half, resulting in a 91-81 victory for the Cavs. For those of you questioning Cleveland's advantage in playing a tired New York team coming off a the prior night game in Charlotte, think again.  Like the Knicks, the Cavs were also playing the second game of a back-to-back, having traveled from Miami after a loss to the Heat on Tuesday night.  Glad we put that to bed.

An issue to consider is Melo and 'Mare resorting to their old ways, shooting a combined 14-33 from the field and only accounting for 34 of the Knicks' 81 points.  It's also no surprise the team finished with 18 assists.

The Knicks rank 24th in the league in assists and and find themselves 21st in overall record.  Out of the top five teams (Nuggets, Spurs, Bulls, Warriors, 76ers) leading the league in assists per game, 3 of them currently sit atop the standings in their divisions, with Denver (2 games back from Oklahoma City) and Golden State (nominated for most disappointing) being the odd balls out. Coincidence?  Probably not.

In analyzing the stats from the first 18 games, the Knicks have a 75% chance of winning when compiling 20 or more assists, opposed to just 23% when they fail to do so.  

In analyzing the stats from the first 18 games, the Knicks have a 75% chance of winning when compiling 20 or more assists, opposed to just 23% when they fail to do so.  In a 48 minute game, the team would only have to muster up 5 assists per quarter, or .42 a minute.  Considering there are 720 seconds in a quarter, with each team receiving 24 seconds per possession, accounting for 15 possessions per quarter, the Knicks would only have to convert an assist 1 out of every 3 possessions.  And that's assuming that every team fails to turn the ball over and takes all 24 seconds to shot. I'm sorry, but this goal is totally obtainable and should become a natural to a team with prolonged practice.  Quite frankly, I find it unacceptable for any professional team to miss this mark.  That should be an immediate red flag for any coaching staff and I'm a little embarrassed no one has already brought it up.  Knicks fans have been smart enough to shout "PASS" at Carmelo during home games, but I'm not quite sure they were aware of the statistical implications.

With New York set to take on the Miami Heat on Friday night, a game that has been heavily promoted by ESPN all week,  I can only hope that someone from the Knicks organization will read this and pass it along to Mike D'Antoni and his coaching staff to have implemented for the game.  However, if the stats somehow never make it to the coach's desk, I won't be surprised.  Passing has always been a problem for New York.

-@mjsthe3rd