The Fan Hub

It's a good year to be in the Big Ten. Thus far, the Big Ten has been the best conference in college basketball. Eight of the conferences' 12 teams have serious aspirations for tournament glory. Let's separate the locks from the teams that still need some work.

(Sorry Northwestern. There's always next year).

Locks: Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana
Need I say more about Ohio State? The Buckeyes are 6th in RPI and have the chance to shore up any doubters with a win against Wisconsin. And they have one of the three most dominant players in college basketball in Jared Sullinger.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo _Bradley Leeb-US PRESSWIRE

The Spartans are actually ranked higher in RPI (5th) than the Buckeyes. Don't let their worst game of the season, Tuesday's 42-41 loss to Illinois, fool you. The Spartans are always in games (their last two losses were both by one-point), rarely play poorly (the Illinois loss is truly their only bad loss), and have probably my favorite coach in college basketball in Tom Izzo. Expect a revenge win at home against Michigan this weekend that dispels skepticism.

What's the last team to beat the #1 and #2 teams and miss the tournament in the same season? I honestly don't know, but I assume it hasn't happened. And I'm quite certain Indiana will not become the trivia answer to this question. Sure, the Hoosiers are 5-6 in the Big Ten. Yes, we got a little carried away in our expectations for Indiana. And there are teams below that are more talented and frankly, better than the Hoosiers. But it will take a collapse on par with Rome's for Indiana to be sitting at home come March.

In Good Shape: Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois

Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Michigan and Wisconsin are in similar situations this weekend, playing better ranked rivals. With wins against Michigan State and Ohio State respectively, both teams immediately ascend to the locks tier. With losses, we have to once again consider how good both squads are.

Michigan appears the stronger team of the two, but has had trouble on the road against a wide range of opponents (on one side, losses to Ohio State and Indiana, on the other side, losses to Iowa and Arkansas). Five of their last eight games are on the road against conference opponents, so that could spell trouble. After beating the Spartans in the final seconds of their earlier matchup, the Wolverines will have a particularly tough time in East Lansing this Sunday. The good news is, after Michigan State, their three toughest games (Ohio State, Illinois, and Purdue) are all at home, where they haven't lost this season. The Wolverines seem poised for a return to the tournament.

Wisconsin's six game conference winning streak has seemingly covered up a 1-3 conference start. I want to like the Badgers more. They nearly beat UNC, Marquette and Michigan State. But that word, nearly, describes Wisconsin. They've been nearly good. They have yet to secure a signature win, unless you count an away win at Illinois or a home win versus the down-to-earth Hoosiers as compelling. The Badgers actually one of the toughest schedules to end the season: two games against Ohio State, two games against surprisingly decent Minnesota, away at Michigan State, home versus Illinois, at Iowa and home versus Penn State. That's only two easy games. They could still make the tournament even if they lose at Michigan State and at Ohio State (and I think they will), but it gets tougher. That's what makes this weekend important. They may have the defense and momentum to take down Ohio State tomorrow, but I still find myself penciling the Badgers in for an early tourney exit. Well, at least I'm projecting them in the tournament!

The Illini appear in better shape than Wisconsin. Illinois has wins over Ohio State and Michigan State, two victories that will undoubtedly help them come Selection Sunday. I particularly have enjoyed the play of 7-1 sophomore Meyer Leonard, who has the ability to dominate games. My question is why he doesn't employ this skill more often. I hesitate jumping wholeheartedly on the Illini bandwagon because of losses to Penn State, Minnesota, and Purdue; a good team should take care of that quality of opponent.

Need Some Work: Minnesota, Purdue

Minnesota forward Rodney Williams. Brace Hemmelgarn-US PRESSWIRE

Minnesota is the only team to beat Indiana at Assembly Hall this season. Impressive. They split double overtime home and away with Illinois, a minor feat. The Gophers next eight games will wholly dictate their tournament hopes. During this stretch, they play Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin twice. Fortunately, four of these games are played in Minneapolis. I get the feeling that Minnesota must finish that stretch 2-3 or better to have a chance at getting an at-large bid.

Whereas I want to like Wisconsin more, I know I should like the Boilermakers less. But I can't help it. I want the feel-good story where Robbie Hummel, after two consecutive season-ending injuries, finally triumphs. Unfortunately, Purdue being very bubbly has gotten in the way. The Boilermakers have a 54 RPI and 5-4 record in a tough conference, a combination that very much places them on the bubble. Purdue has yet to beat a ranked team and had really bad losses at Penn State and Michigan State. Boy, would a win over Michigan have felt good; alas, Purdue lost by two. The bad news for the Boilermakers is that they are now only entering the hardest part of their schedule; they still have games away at Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan, and Illinois, as well as a home game against Michigan State. Barring an inspiring turnaround, Purdue's tourney hopes may be dying.