The Fan Hub

While Purdue-Illinois might seem like a game between two unranked conference foes on paper, Wednesday’s game between the two could very well decide the NCAA Tournament fates of both. The Boilermakers knocked off the Illini 67-62, a victory that strengthened their tourney dreams while tremendously hurting Illinois' chances of a postseason in March.

Purdue and Illinois embody the wackiness that is conference play. After a mercurial conference start, Purdue has played well of late, though its record does not reflect this claim. Although the Boilermakers are 3-3 in their last three games, all of these games were against opponents in the top sixty RPI, and those losses included a two-point heartbreaker to Michigan and a three-point defeat at hands of the Buckeyes. Of course, a win is always better than a close loss; yet, at the same time, a close loss to a ranked squad is something.

Purdue Boilermakers forward Robbie Hummel (4) makes a basket over Illinois Fighting Illini guard Brandon Paul (3) during the second half at Assembly Hall. Purdue won 67-62. Mandatory Credit: Bradley Leeb-US PRESSWIRE

Purdue's recent solid performance has the Boilermakers rising in RPI, currently at 46th. That puts them on the good side of the bubble. They have three tough games left on their schedule (Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana); if they can upset one of these squads, finishing the season 3-2, barring a horrible conference tournament showing, the Boilermakers can secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

After losing to Purdue, the Illini has some work to do if they want to clinch an at-large tourney bid. A month ago, the Illini looked like a shoo-in: a 15-3 record, a #22 AP Poll ranking, and a win against Ohio State. The mid-February Illini barely resemble the Illini of early January. Illinois has dropped seven of its last eight, including unacceptable losses to Penn State and Northwestern. It's difficult to argue that you deserve a tournament berth, especially when you are tanking games against mediocre teams at a time when you are supposed to be coming into stride. Illinois has Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin left on its schedule. The Illini need to take one of these games, in addition to beating Nebraska and Iowa. Otherwise, they can kiss their tourney dreams goodbye.

So just like that, Purdue's triumph over Illinois decided (or came close to deciding) the fates of two teams. Purdue is looking more and more like a tournament squad and a victory over Illinois gave all the more reason to believe in them. While the NCAA argues that tournament seeding is not influenced by recent performance (as opposed to November performance), playing terribly in February is not helpful. Illinois' RPI is down to 59. That's outside bubble range. A win against Purdue could have helped stopped the bleeding. Without that win, the Illini need an emergency tourniquet. And they need it now.

— Ben Gordon